Big Debt online high quality Crises outlet sale

Big Debt online high quality Crises outlet sale

Big Debt online high quality Crises outlet sale

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"Ray Dalio''s excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke 

"Ray Dalio''s book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers 

"A terrific piece of work from one of the world''s top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson 

"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner
 

On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world''s most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.  

As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller,  Principles: Life & Work , Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future. 

The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930''s Great Depression, and the 1920''s inflationary depression of Germany''s Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you''re an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways. 

About the Author

Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency that is the foundation of the firm s success. Since starting Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975, Ray has grown the firm into the largest hedge fund in the world, the 5th most important company in the U.S. according to Fortune Magazine, and has led it to make more money for clients than any other hedge fund since its inception, according to LCH Investments. For his innovative work as well as being a valued advisor to many global policy makers, Ray has also been called the Steve Jobs of Investing by CIO Magazine and Wired Magazine, and been named one of TIME Magazine s 100 Most Influential People. Over the past three decades, he wrote down his decision-making criteria and has recently passed along his principles and tools through his book, Principles: Life & Work, a New York Times #1 Bestseller and Amazon #1 Business Book of 2017.

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4.7 out of 54.7 out of 5
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Amazon Customer
4.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
Don''t read on B&W kindles
Reviewed in the United States on September 24, 2018
Big fan of Dalio and have greatly valued his writings since the GFC. However, this book''s charts are not design for black and white, so it''s pretty useless on my Kindle.
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MIMI
5.0 out of 5 stars
A must-read to understand the world we live in today.
Reviewed in the United States on September 11, 2018
Since 2008 financial "almost" meltdown, I have been more puzzled by the financial market and human behavior when it comes to money. Now in 2018, housing and stock prices at an all-time high while most people are not making more income than they did pre-2008. I also... See more
Since 2008 financial "almost" meltdown, I have been more puzzled by the financial market and human behavior when it comes to money. Now in 2018, housing and stock prices at an all-time high while most people are not making more income than they did pre-2008. I also wondered what contributed to the run-up in US financial market vs. other countries. I''m 100 pages into the book and it has already offered me so many perspectives to view what is going on today.

Many looks at the Wall Street as an evil entity, but I believe the financial market can be utilized to create financial freedom for individuals. But first, we must make an effort to understand the game as Warren Buffett said - "Risk comes from not knowing what you''re doing."

This is a must-read to understand the world we live in today. I''m grateful that Ray and his team had put a very complex world of finance into simple languages I can understand and offer a comprehensive review of how we got here today.
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David Shulman
4.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
The Pathology of Debt Crises
Reviewed in the United States on October 6, 2018
Ray Dalio runs the very successful $150 billion Bridgewater Associates hedge fund and he is more than qualified to understand the pathology of debt. His book offers up a template for understanding of how a debt crisis develops where early optimism leads to over-leveraging... See more
Ray Dalio runs the very successful $150 billion Bridgewater Associates hedge fund and he is more than qualified to understand the pathology of debt. His book offers up a template for understanding of how a debt crisis develops where early optimism leads to over-leveraging that can longer be serviced which leads to analyzing the appropriate policy responses to it and a great deal of pain for society as a whole. He also fully understands that once a crisis is in full train there can be very negative political feedbacks that can make things far worse.

To Dalio policy makers have to ignore, at least initially, the problem of moral hazard. That is bailing out the ones who were in up to their eyeballs in making the crisis. He was fully supportive of the banker bailout program which in his opinion and my opinion was necessary to save the system. Where I would differ is that once a crisis has past the critical phase, those responsible have to be held to account. One of the reasons why there is so much populism on the right and the left is that no major banker in the U.S. went to jail. That was unlike the savings and loan scandals of the late 1980s and the dot.com frauds of the late 1990s. Our pagan society needs ritual sacrifices to cleanse the system.

Where his book is most valuable is his discussion of the three major debt crises of the past 100 years: Weimar Germany 1918-24, the Great Depression 1928-1937 and the recent Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2011. He goes through each of those crises in great detail and in many cases on a nearly day-by-day basis. In the case of the recent crisis he includes his contemporaneous Bridgewater Daily Observations publication to get his thinking in real time. By doing this he puts you into the shoes of investors and policy makers as they scramble to make sense as to what is going on. In the case of the German hyper-inflation he notes that given all of the constraints that might have been the least bad alternative policy to follow.

Dalio credits the work of Bernanke, Paulson and Geithner in preventing the U.S. in falling into a second great depression after the failure of Lehman Brothers. However letting Lehman go in hindsight looks like a big mistake. However as I have written elsewhere letting Lehman go was analogous to killing the chicken to scare the monkey. He also credits the smooth hand-off between the Bush and Obama administrations which contrasted to the lack of a hand-off between Hoover and Roosevelt in 1933.

I have several quibbles with the book. In the Weimar inflation he rightly notes that the assassination of highly respected finance minister Walter Rathenau made it more difficult for Germany to renegotiate reparations payments, but he ignores the untimely death of foreign minister Gustav Stressemann in 1929 who might have been able to ease Germany’s external debt problem. He further ignores the untimely death of New York Fed president Benjamin Strong in 1928, who in Milton Freidman’s view might have saved the U.S. from the worst of the depression. Dalio, although he mentions it, under-rates the Treasury’s gold sterilization policy in the mid-1930s that triggered the 1937 relapse into depression.

Dalio also ignores the role of Bridgewater during the crisis. After all Bridgewater was part of the problem in that it was very likely they were shorting mortgages, high yield debt, equities, and bank stocks while being long treasuries, the U.S. dollar and gold. How else could Bridgewater have made money in 2008? Lastly the book is too long, but read the three case studies with great care which are magnificent.
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Paul R. Chitoiu
5.0 out of 5 stars
I downloaded the PDF, but will buy the book
Reviewed in the United States on September 13, 2018
This is hands down the best economics book I have ever read. The writing is very clear, unlike other economics books (I''m looking at you Piketty). It''s also quite terrifying. This book has convinced me that the best thing I can do right now, regardless of whether we will... See more
This is hands down the best economics book I have ever read. The writing is very clear, unlike other economics books (I''m looking at you Piketty). It''s also quite terrifying. This book has convinced me that the best thing I can do right now, regardless of whether we will have a collapse or not, is put my money in physical assets (especially real estate). Sure, they don''t grow as fast, but it removes the risk of going broke if the dollar goes belly up.

Furthermore, as opposed to other doom-and-gloom recent writings, this book is not selling anything. It is simply presenting facts. It''s up to you to draw your own conclusions as far as what you should do to protect yourself in the event of a crisis. My takeaway was that the only way to truly insulate yourself is to buy tangible assets. Myself, I will opt for putting most of my money in property, instead of gold or other such assets. The reason is simple. Everyone needs a place to live. Gold is not going to help me feed my family, but a house will help me shelter them in case of bad times. In case of good times, it will generate income.

The only criticism I have is that Dalio is a little bit too enamored with the Fed (and central banking in general). I agree that they did an excellent job to avert a depression. However, bailing out banks set a dangerous precedent, because as long as there is the widely held belief that the government will always be there to absorb bad debt, these people will keep doing it. Yes, the Fed saved the economy, but in reality, they just kicked the can down the road and continued contributing to a broken financial system. maybe they should have just let the system collapse and let the market enter a natural depression.
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Rev. Al Sharpton
5.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
I have a Question for Ray . . .
Reviewed in the United States on November 8, 2018
Ray is a genius. He understands more about economics than Keynes, Friedman, Mises, et al. combined. After reading just about everything Ray has ever written, I can say that I really truly understand our economy. One question though regarding debt cycles. Our current... See more
Ray is a genius. He understands more about economics than Keynes, Friedman, Mises, et al. combined. After reading just about everything Ray has ever written, I can say that I really truly understand our economy. One question though regarding debt cycles. Our current debt/GDP ratio today is more or less the same level as it was in 2008, which means that despite this high debt burden, our economy can still grow briskly. The point is that I don''t think the Great Recession was caused by too much debt as compared to GDP (because again, we''re at the same ratio and our economy is fine), but the GR was caused by the economy having way too much short term/callable/repo debt as compared to M1. M1 is what''s used to pay down short term debt when required. But over the course of the past 50 years, short term debt grew much faster than M1, so that when Bear and then Lehman fell, we had a huge liquidity crisis - more so than a debt crisis. Since 2008, the ratio of short term debt to M1 has improved dramatically. Ray, would you agree that the problem was less a high debt/GDP ratio than it was a high short term debt/M1 ratio?
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Michael Wilson
4.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
No Beautiful Deleveraging
Reviewed in the United States on December 25, 2018
Ray does an excellent job for the most part and all investors need to read this book. The market does move in cycles. It doesn''t go straight up. My big disagreement is with Ray''s assertion that QE has worked. He has way too much faith in central bankers. I don''t... See more
Ray does an excellent job for the most part and all investors need to read this book. The market does move in cycles. It doesn''t go straight up.

My big disagreement is with Ray''s assertion that QE has worked. He has way too much faith in central bankers. I don''t believe, as he does, that QE worked in both the US and Europe; although after 30 years it is still making the Japanese situation even worse.

In talking about the 2007-2011 Crisis he claims that "Beautiful Deleveraging" occurred. However, worldwide debt to GDP is now 12% higher than in 2009. Corporate debt is up 40%. There was no deleveraging - we''ve levered up even more. And now, instead of CDOs, we have CLOs as the next weapon of mass destruction.

Ray''s assertion that the Fed needs to be paying attention to debt levels is true. But they haven''t. Ben''s QE experiment did moderate the current crisis while only setting up the next. Creating even more bad debt is not a solution.
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Joshua J. Hansen
2.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
Much useful information and a heaping dose of odious flimflam
Reviewed in the United States on January 11, 2020
This thee-volume set includes useful accounts of numerous deleveragings (both inflationary and deflationary), as well as Mr. Dalio''s accounts of both the business cycle and the long-term debt cycle (also available in some of his free works that can be found on-line as pdf... See more
This thee-volume set includes useful accounts of numerous deleveragings (both inflationary and deflationary), as well as Mr. Dalio''s accounts of both the business cycle and the long-term debt cycle (also available in some of his free works that can be found on-line as pdf files)--accounts that are quite useful for investors and for business persons. Dalio''s grasp of credit cycles, and his research, are of such quality, so insightful, and so reflective of his intellectual independence, that he is well suited to produce classic texts.

This work, however, is ill suited to become a classic, as Dalio has written it partly as a guide for politicians and bureaucrats who wish to bail out various clients (bankers, brokers, fund managers, large asset holders, and a variety of large institutions) at the expense of the public--a task that is familiar, as they have been doing it for decades, for the benefit of persons such as Dalio, the only change being that, until recently, they intervened at the end of each business cycle rather than at the bottom of each downwave within the deleveraging phase of the longer-term debt cycle. Dalio gives these lackeys and clowns precise instructions that include nearly everything but the natural, honest choice to let debtors, companies, and governments go bankrupt so that everyone can start over. He also flatters and panders. Behold the following gem: "While being a successful investment manager is hard, it''s not nearly as hard as being a successful policy maker. We investors only have to understand how the economic machine works and anticipate what will happen next. Policy makers have to do that, plus make everything turn out well . . . . To do that requires a lot of smarts, a willingness to fight, and political savvy--i.e., skills and heroism . . . ." Accordingly, the back cover bears endorsements from four heroes--one who has long served as a great example of a well-intentioned, arrogantly delusional academic (Ben Bernanke), two who appear to be sociopaths as well as toadies (Larry Summers and Tim Geithner), and one who worked for Goldman Sachs before taking a job as U.S. Treasury secretary, also for Goldman Sachs (Hank Paulson).

As revolting as the work is in numerous places, it does contain much excellent information for honest persons who wish to navigate a deleveraging as well as they can, and I do appreciate Mr. Dalio''s taking the time to write books--these three volumes, as well as the free on-line works that he has written. It is rare for a hedge fund manager to write numerous books, and it is especially rare for one to publish works that serve partly as guides for investors. My appreciation is tempered, however, not only by the defects of this particular work (which is intended for bureaucrats and politicians as well as for investors and business persons) but also by the suspicion that he writes partly to lure additional investors toward his funds, perhaps because he is (maybe--I do not know) running a Ponzi scheme, a possibility that one commentator has raised due to the consistency of his returns, the complexity of his organization and of its accounting, and his flurry of texts geared toward investors.

I find this text useful. I think, however, that, if someone wishes to learn from a successful fund manager, his or her time might be better spent listening to Jeffrey Gundlach''s podcasts on the DoubleLine site, or to interviews with Rick Rule or Marc Faber. These other managers are fantastic teachers and observers who, unlike Dalio, merit enthusiastic and unqualified endorsements. For an account of the Weimar inflation by someone superior to Dalio, consider C. Bresciani-Turroni''s "Economics of Inflation."
20 people found this helpful
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Brian LaRocca
5.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
How to Manage a Financial Crisis
Reviewed in the United States on October 10, 2018
Admittedly a narrow subject for most people to dig deep into but, if this is your sort of thing, you are not going to do better than reading Ray Dalio. Dalio already had a stellar investment track record before the 2008 crisis but it grew exponentially post it with his... See more
Admittedly a narrow subject for most people to dig deep into but, if this is your sort of thing, you are not going to do better than reading Ray Dalio. Dalio already had a stellar investment track record before the 2008 crisis but it grew exponentially post it with his deft positioning of Bridgewater''s positions. I am amazed at how much analysis he had done prior to the crash. It seems like after studying past crises, he was expecting and prepared for the mortgage bubble.

This book looks at the signs to diagnosis a crisis, then prescribes the right remedies to ameliorate it. It also foresees the popular backlash that is always present. After his exhaustive review of past crises, you see that there are indeed common threads among all credit bubbles. In fact, the bible was well aware of debt''s ability to become unmanageable and therefore called for a year of jubilee or debt forgiveness.

What becomes clear is that speed and action are vital. Hoover would not attend to a "banker made crisis" and that led a depression. Dalio compares that to the 2008 crisis where Tim Geithner estimates that the cost of the financial rescue, rather than losing its typical 5-10% of GDP, actually made 2%.

Although regulators have improved their toolkit there are still some issues lurking: mark to market accounting could still lead to forced sales, banks still have asset/liability mismatches and its hard to decipher where exposures lay. Its also hard post Dodd Frank to see if the Fed could take the extraordinary actions it took in 2008.
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Top reviews from other countries

Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
Graphs & charts incompatible with Kindle Paperwhite
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 19, 2018
Note to Kindle Paperwhite readers: The numerous graphs and charts in this Paperwhite edition are largely illegible - They have not been adapted from the print version for reading in greyscale format. Note to the publisher: Please correct the graphs and charts in the...See more
Note to Kindle Paperwhite readers: The numerous graphs and charts in this Paperwhite edition are largely illegible - They have not been adapted from the print version for reading in greyscale format. Note to the publisher: Please correct the graphs and charts in the Paperwhite edition so that they are legible in greyscale. This can be surely be done relatively easily - In the meantime, Paperwhite readers are being short-changed. Review: The book is brilliantly written and highly informative. A great read for anyone interested in the markets, government economic policy etc.
28 people found this helpful
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DT
5.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
Historical Financial Cycles explained in easy to understand terms
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 1, 2019
Thank you Ray Dalio for sharing a monumental study of debt crises. This is clearly the work of a lifetime. Through the words of a passionate and lucid narrator, Ray takes the reader deep in to the workings of big debt crises. First building fundamental knowledge of the...See more
Thank you Ray Dalio for sharing a monumental study of debt crises. This is clearly the work of a lifetime. Through the words of a passionate and lucid narrator, Ray takes the reader deep in to the workings of big debt crises. First building fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms and systems that influence the business cycle, then walking the reader through defining events in financial history. What makes this tome exceptional is the detail presented to demonstrate the casual links between world events and financial markets. And what makes this monumental work refreshing is that the writer has a gift for teaching and a passion to demystify opaque financial terms for non-specialists. Thoroughly recommended for anyone who wants to understand how the economy and financial systems work to shape our world.
9 people found this helpful
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Graffico
5.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
Highly Detailed & Technical (Great Value 🤓👍)
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 14, 2020
This book will give you a highly detailed and technical account of the 2008 credit crisis as well as how governments manipulate their currency systems during times of economic crisis, well worth reading Finance Professionals will love this book. I liked how this book...See more
This book will give you a highly detailed and technical account of the 2008 credit crisis as well as how governments manipulate their currency systems during times of economic crisis, well worth reading Finance Professionals will love this book. I liked how this book discussed currency crisis’s across the world and how they were all dealt with. I agree with the current trend that the US dollar will eventually collapse, I dont think we will go back to a Gold standard but I do think we will go into a new “Digital” standard, Davos 2021 will be a clear indicator of this.
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private
5.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
an engineer slays economists
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 12, 2018
an engineer provides a nice handy template with which to understand the daunting world of financial booms and busts, finally economists exposed as the superflous pseudo scientists they are.
9 people found this helpful
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KK
5.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
Among the best books I''ve ever read...
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 13, 2020
Absolutely fantastic piece of work by Ray Dalio, the product of his lifelong work at Bridgewater Associates. This books provides a template for investors and policy makers to avoid and respond to debt crises. It does not provide any recommendations nor includes any...See more
Absolutely fantastic piece of work by Ray Dalio, the product of his lifelong work at Bridgewater Associates. This books provides a template for investors and policy makers to avoid and respond to debt crises. It does not provide any recommendations nor includes any discussion of positions that should be taken, but it''s an ideal read for everyone interested in financial markets and the economy. Ray provides a detailed account of events that led to the biggest debt crises around the world with a lot of detail. Although not an easy one, this is a great read.
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Big Debt online high quality Crises outlet sale

Big Debt online high quality Crises outlet sale

Big Debt online high quality Crises outlet sale

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